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Official PYQ · 2003

GATE CS 2003 Q3 — Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem

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Let P(E)P(E) denote the probability of the event EE. Given P(A)=1P(A) = 1, P(B)=12P(B) =\dfrac{1}{2}, the values of P(A∣B)P(A\mid B) and P(B∣A)P(B\mid A) respectively are

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Answer: D

To find the conditional probabilities P(A∣B)P(A \mid B) and P(B∣A)P(B \mid A), we first need to determine the probability of their intersection, P(A∩B)P(A \cap B).

Using the probability of the union of two events:

P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

Since any probability is at most 11, we have P(A∪B)≤1P(A \cup B) \le 1. Given P(A)=1P(A) = 1 and P(B)=12P(B) = \frac{1}{2}:

1≥1+12−P(A∩B)  ⟹  P(A∩B)≥121 \ge 1 + \frac{1}{2} - P(A \cap B) \implies P(A \cap B) \ge \frac{1}{2}

Since A∩B⊆BA \cap B \subseteq B, it must also be true that P(A∩B)≤P(B)=12P(A \cap B) \le P(B) = \frac{1}{2}. Therefore, we have:

P(A∩B)=12P(A \cap B) = \frac{1}{2}

Now, we can compute the required conditional probabilities:

  1. P(A∣B)P(A \mid B): P(A∣B)=P(A∩B)P(B)=1/21/2=1P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{1/2}{1/2} = 1
  2. P(B∣A)P(B \mid A): P(B∣A)=P(A∩B)P(A)=1/21=12P(B \mid A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} = \frac{1/2}{1} = \frac{1}{2}

Thus, the values of P(A∣B)P(A \mid B) and P(B∣A)P(B \mid A) are 11 and 12\frac{1}{2}, respectively.

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