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Official PYQ · 2018

GATE CS 2018 QGA-10 — General Aptitude

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A six sided unbiased die with four green faces and two red faces is rolled seven times. Which of the following combinations is the most likely outcome of the experiment?

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Answer: C

This problem can be modeled using the Binomial Distribution.

Let GG be the event of rolling a green face, and RR be the event of rolling a red face. The probabilities of these events on a single roll of the unbiased 6-sided die are:

  • Probability of Green, p=P(G)=46=23p = P(G) = \frac{4}{6} = \frac{2}{3}
  • Probability of Red, q=P(R)=26=13q = P(R) = \frac{2}{6} = \frac{1}{3}

The die is rolled n=7n = 7 times. Let XX be the random variable representing the number of green faces obtained. XX follows a binomial distribution, X∼Binomial(7,23)X \sim \text{Binomial}\left(7, \frac{2}{3}\right).

The probability of getting exactly kk green faces (and 7−k7-k red faces) is given by:

P(X=k)=(7k)pkq7−k=(7k)(23)k(13)7−k=(7k)2k37P(X = k) = \binom{7}{k} p^k q^{7-k} = \binom{7}{k} \left(\frac{2}{3}\right)^k \left(\frac{1}{3}\right)^{7-k} = \binom{7}{k} \frac{2^k}{3^7}

We can find the most likely outcome (the mode of the distribution) by calculating P(X=k)P(X = k) for the values of kk given in the options:

  1. Three green and four red faces (k=3k = 3): P(X=3)=(73)2337=35×837=28037P(X = 3) = \binom{7}{3} \frac{2^3}{3^7} = 35 \times \frac{8}{3^7} = \frac{280}{3^7}
  2. Four green and three red faces (k=4k = 4): P(X=4)=(74)2437=35×1637=56037P(X = 4) = \binom{7}{4} \frac{2^4}{3^7} = 35 \times \frac{16}{3^7} = \frac{560}{3^7}
  3. Five green and two red faces (k=5k = 5): P(X=5)=(75)2537=21×3237=67237P(X = 5) = \binom{7}{5} \frac{2^5}{3^7} = 21 \times \frac{32}{3^7} = \frac{672}{3^7}
  4. Six green and one red face (k=6k = 6): P(X=6)=(76)2637=7×6437=44837P(X = 6) = \binom{7}{6} \frac{2^6}{3^7} = 7 \times \frac{64}{3^7} = \frac{448}{3^7}

Comparing the numerators, we see that the probability is maximized when k=5k = 5 (numerator is 672672).

Alternative Method (Using the Mode of a Binomial Distribution):
The mode of a binomial distribution B(n,p)B(n, p) is given by ⌊(n+1)p⌋\lfloor (n+1)p \rfloor if (n+1)p(n+1)p is not an integer.
Here, (n+1)p=(7+1)×23=163≈5.33(n+1)p = (7+1) \times \frac{2}{3} = \frac{16}{3} \approx 5.33.
Therefore, the mode is ⌊5.33⌋=5\lfloor 5.33 \rfloor = 5 green faces (and consequently 7−5=27 - 5 = 2 red faces).

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